2020 > 2021, what changed… not what I expected to find.

Comparing Rank Data 2020 Jan 1st to 2021 Jan 1st

The obvious:
Anonymous Default Team0 went from the #14 donor to a dominating powerhouse, nearly quadrupling (3461%) the Total Points from the previous 2020 #1 donor.

For the Rank Levels in the Top 1000 donors, point levels essentially doubled (185%). Spread, the point separation between donors increased at a similar rate.

but, Beyond the 1K Rank Level, everything changed…

Of course, the magnitude of change is decreasing as Rank increases. Glancing at the numbers, nothing seemed peculiar.
However, when I calculated the percent change for Rank Levels beyond 1000, the numbers diverged wildly from what I had expected to find.. (see data below), that 200% rate climbed to near 1400%!

Next step was to plot the data and get a rough view of how these numbers were behaving…

Looking at the chart it was easy to see that the group sizes were affecting the plot.
I get Rank data at 1, 25, 50, 100-1000, 1k-15k, then 5k increments 15k-100k. These are the groups that gave me the most meaningful data distribution for the Rank Analyzer.

Puzzling over this plot for some time… the two major plateaus in the ‘spread’ data at 185% and 324%, were the obvious features. Thinking something is occurring at the 5k and 15k levels. I highlighted these two bands in the spreadsheet.

From previous work (unpublished), I knew that more donors had abandoned at the 100-200 million point level than all levels after, combined. I call that behavior manifestation:

begin with an end-in-mind…

With that knowledge of Folder behavior patterns, it was immediately clear, what was occurring. Over the span of one year, the 100 million point abandon level trigger, had moved from the 5K Rank level to the 15K Rank level, creating a plateau as it moved.
Rank Level 2020 Jan 1st data —————————————-> 2021 Jan 1st data —————————————>

As an aside, I looked at the other, smaller plateau at the 80-90k Rank level.
It coincides with what I consider to be the first Abandon Level trigger, 100k points.
It will be interesting to see how all the Covid Surge artifacts affect the stats. Currently, I’m seeing a drastic decrease in the Rank Analyzer numbers when compared to December data. The increased spread in the higher ranks is creating lulls in the data and many of the high-flayers have committed to lower point production levels.

RANKPOINTS SPREAD
13461%
25235%187%
50198%307%
100179%233%
200180%178%
300182%174%
400184%176%
500184%186%
600182%192%
700179%209%
800185%137%
900189%157%
1000189%180%
2000216%164%
3000253%161%
4000280%189%
5000313%188%
6000341%215%
7000363%245%
8000388%240%
9000405%290%
10000421%301%
11000436%321%
12000451%321%
13000467%328%
14000484%326%
15000499%348%
20000574%374%
25000636%432%
30000705%457%
35000771%508%
40000836%547%
45000887%628%
50000940%650%
600001038%724%
700001135%791%
800001211%900%
900001309%905%
1000001378%1060%
TABULAR DATA, 2020v2021 data change %